Last in a six-part series

In Part One of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we summarize our findings and provide sales professionals with some clear recommendations about the kind of OS they should use.

So, what should salespeople do about their computer operating systems?

For many years now, most of the world rallied to one standard desktop operating system: Microsoft Windows.  It was a nice place to be - very consistent and predictable.  People could transfer their computer using skills from one place to the next with relative ease.  Information flowed.  Commerce thrived.  All was well in the kingdom.

Three accelerating trends are occurring now, however, that are beginning to disrupt this idyllic scene.

Let’s call the first of these trends the “good enough” syndrome.  Over the last few years, most computer users - especially mobile sales professionals - watched the incremental improvements in processor speeds as they developed, looked at their existing hardware, and said, “I think I’ll just live with this a while longer - it seems plenty good enough for the moment.” This is one big reason why Microsoft stumbled with their latest version of Windows: Vista.  They assumed that computer users would continue to upgrade their hardware, and follow the latest trends in state-of-the-art processors and supporting systems, just as they always had in the past.  But Microsoft supposed wrongly.  Unlike cutting-edge users of high-end gaming and other processor-intensive applications such as media creation, most businesspeople only need a solid, reliable machine that is good enough to get the job done.

A second trend is the rapidly rising reliability and availability of fast, ubiquitous Internet access.  This trend further reduces the need for powerful personal computer hardware, making super-robust client-based operating systems even less important.  As long as users can “jack into the cloud”, their computer need only be a reliable user interface and communications platform.

A third trend is the increasing blurring of device specialization.  In the good old days, you had a computer, a cell phone, a fax machine, a stereo, a television and maybe a VCR - each device performed its own special task.  Today, your computer, phone, instant messenger, email, music player, Internet browser and many other capabilities can all be wrapped up into a very small number of portable devices - and for some users, perhaps only one.  As long as people can get to their data, in a form factor that is comfortable to use, they don’t care what device they use.

These three trends - good enough power, ‘net access, and device consolidation - have huge implications for the kinds of operating systems that salespeople will use on their computers in the next few years.  Recognizing this, let’s now make some practical suggestions for sales professionals, along with a few bold predictions:

• First, most of the world is using Windows today (albeit mostly XP, not Vista), and that won’t change anytime soon.  So, if you’re using Windows now, and it’s all working fine, keep doing so.  You’re in good company, and there’s no need to panic.
• However, if you are using Vista today, or if you’re considering buying a new Vista-based machine, and your hardware doesn’t have the power to take advantage of the advanced user interface capabilities, consider “downgrading” to XP - you almost certainly will find a more stable environment there, and get snappier performance.
• If you are using a Mac today, and it’s getting the job done for you, keep doing so.  There’s no compelling reason to switch to any other operating system if you are happy in your insulated, safe Apple architecture - at least, for now.
• Monitor the development of netbooks closely - they will be the vehicles that drive widespread acceptance of “cloud computing.”  Netbooks are now cheap, highly portable, quick-performing platforms that are becoming especially compelling for mobile sales professionals.
• Consider buying one of the currently available, inexpensive netbooks with an “instant on” (probably Linux-based) OS as a second computer before the end of 2008, and begin to experiment with Internet-based storage and applications.  It will likely become your favorite “road machine”, and you’ll leave your heavy duty client computer at home for more processor-intensive work.
• Microsoft has probably learned enough from the Vista experience to make Windows 7 much more scalable, lean, and user-friendly OS.  The early indications that they are incorporating touch and gesture-based user interfaces will give Windows 7 enough of a “wow factor” to convince most users to upgrade to that platform in 2010.
• Even in 2010, we think that Apple will most likely continue to hide in its comfortable closed architecture, and cater to its relatively small legion of dedicated fans.
• By 2010, an increasing number of netbook users will be familiar with Linux, but most won’t realize that is what they are using - to them, it will just be the “instant on” usability feature, and they’ll use it only to the extent that they need to get connected to the Internet.
• We think that Microsoft’s Windows 7 short-term upgrade surge will be a somewhat hollow victory.  By then, enough netbooks will be in use to make cloud-based operating environments common.  By 2014, just as Microsoft ends formal support of the venerable old XP OS, it’s likely that most computer users will be “jacking into the cloud” far more frequently than they will be using disconnected, client-based computers.
• What will the dominant cloud-based OS be in 2015 and beyond? Unfortunately, there are far too many experiments in different ‘net-based operating systems today to know for certain.  Most likely, all of the currently significant OS platforms - Windows, Mac OS, and Linux - will each evolve cloud OS capabilities, thereby preserving some semblance of today’s market shares.  In other words, the brands will be the same, but they will each operate very differently than they do today.

If you take nothing else away from this series, consider this: operating systems are going to change the way that salespeople use computers over the next few years.  Those that stay on top of this rapid evolution will find exciting new ways to get the information they need to find, sell, close and service customers - those that try to cling to the status quo will be left behind, and fairly quickly.  It is that important.  Take heed.

Tags: cloud computing, Linux, Mac OS X, Microsoft Windows, Operating System, OS

Fourth in a six-part series

In Part One of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most commonly-used open source alternative OS.

Linux

Originally developed in 1991 by Linus Torvalds, the Linux operating system is the poster child for open source, freely distributed software.  Used primarily to run back-office server computers, Linux is a favorite of systems administrators and programmers who appreciate its technical elegance and reliable operation, all at significantly lower cost than other commercial operating systems.

Linux’ strength is also its weakness, however.  Largely invisible to the end-user community, Linux hasn’t garnered the mindshare of the computer-buying market, compared to alternatives from Microsoft or Apple.  Since no one organization has a major stake in the commercial success of the OS, it has not been promoted aggressively to end users, as yet, so Linux just hasn’t captured the imagination of most computer systems buyers.

That is beginning to change, however.  Linux is finally making its way onto the typical computer user’s desktop, driven mostly by the rapid emergence of ultra-portable netbook computers. Generally smaller and lighter than full-function laptops, ultra-portables are designed primarily for accessing the Internet and performing lighter computing tasks.  Netbooks are more information-access appliances than standalone computers.  And like all good appliances, the ability to perform a function quickly and simply is key to its marketability.  And so, Linux is now finding a happy home embedded in netbooks.

With a Linux-based OS embedded, an ultra-portable can provide “instant on” access to an Internet browser, or to files stored on the device.  Users don’t have to wait for a full-feature OS to load, as with Windows or OS X.  Just turn the netbook on, and away you go.  Two good examples of “instant on” Linux-based applications are Splashtop, available on many Asus ultra-portables, and Dell’s “Latitude ON”, which uses a version of the Ubuntu flavor of Linux - both provide users with immediate access to common computer functions.

Tech guru and pundit John Dvorak recently wrote about the potential threat that “instant on” embedded Linux poses to established operating systems, especially Windows.  Dvorak wrote:

…The most interesting story the media is downplaying is the ASUS announcement that it will have a ROM boot chip on all its motherboards, which will boot Linux instantly on start-up. When you flick the switch the machine is instantly on. (It’s about time.) Of course, you will have to press another button for the machine to load Windows…

It’s an extremely subversive ploy for a number of reasons. First of all, it gets people used to Linux, gives them a pain-free experience, and provides quick rewards. Second, it shows users that—most of the time—this is all they need. And finally, it makes Windows look like a subsystem not much different from a program that you run under Windows. The psychological effect of this is profound, and the results could be devastating for Microsoft.

What will develop naturally from such a new architecture will be Linux replacement apps for the usual Windows apps. One at a time they will come. Windows will boot only for those laggard apps, such as Adobe Photoshop or Illustrator. The rest of the time, users will remain in Linux, which will be perceived as very snappy and responsive—something missing from Windows.

Could Linux ultimately take over the computer operating system market? Even if “instant on” embedded Linux becomes common, the open source OS still may not be able to declare victory over Windows.  For one thing, most users turning on their netbook appliance won’t know that they are running Linux, so the OS won’t get the credit it probably deserves.  Second, Microsoft isn’t going to stay still, and as we’ve already discussed earlier in this series, they are also developing the next generation of Windows, which promises to be leaner, lighter and more flexible.  What’s to stop Microsoft from developing an “instant on” ROM-based version of their OS kernel for Windows 7?

In addition, there is no “one” flavor of Linux.  In fact, there are too many versions available, which has added nothing but confusion to the general market’s understanding of what Linux is, how it looks, how it operates, and what it feels like to use it.  Most likely, this diversity will increase, further fragmenting market perception.

Linux does have one major advantage, however - it is free. And that means that computer developers can add more to their profit margins, instead of paying license fees to Microsoft.  They would love it if Windows went away, and an OS that worked reliably, and which customers were willing to buy, was free.  And for that reason alone, expect to see more computer manufacturers embedding “instant on” Linux into their systems very soon.

Next in this series: “The Cloud”

Tags: Linux, operating systems, OS