Last in a six-part series

In Part One of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we summarize our findings and provide sales professionals with some clear recommendations about the kind of OS they should use.

So, what should salespeople do about their computer operating systems?

For many years now, most of the world rallied to one standard desktop operating system: Microsoft Windows.  It was a nice place to be - very consistent and predictable.  People could transfer their computer using skills from one place to the next with relative ease.  Information flowed.  Commerce thrived.  All was well in the kingdom.

Three accelerating trends are occurring now, however, that are beginning to disrupt this idyllic scene.

Let’s call the first of these trends the “good enough” syndrome.  Over the last few years, most computer users - especially mobile sales professionals - watched the incremental improvements in processor speeds as they developed, looked at their existing hardware, and said, “I think I’ll just live with this a while longer - it seems plenty good enough for the moment.” This is one big reason why Microsoft stumbled with their latest version of Windows: Vista.  They assumed that computer users would continue to upgrade their hardware, and follow the latest trends in state-of-the-art processors and supporting systems, just as they always had in the past.  But Microsoft supposed wrongly.  Unlike cutting-edge users of high-end gaming and other processor-intensive applications such as media creation, most businesspeople only need a solid, reliable machine that is good enough to get the job done.

A second trend is the rapidly rising reliability and availability of fast, ubiquitous Internet access.  This trend further reduces the need for powerful personal computer hardware, making super-robust client-based operating systems even less important.  As long as users can “jack into the cloud”, their computer need only be a reliable user interface and communications platform.

A third trend is the increasing blurring of device specialization.  In the good old days, you had a computer, a cell phone, a fax machine, a stereo, a television and maybe a VCR - each device performed its own special task.  Today, your computer, phone, instant messenger, email, music player, Internet browser and many other capabilities can all be wrapped up into a very small number of portable devices - and for some users, perhaps only one.  As long as people can get to their data, in a form factor that is comfortable to use, they don’t care what device they use.

These three trends - good enough power, ‘net access, and device consolidation - have huge implications for the kinds of operating systems that salespeople will use on their computers in the next few years.  Recognizing this, let’s now make some practical suggestions for sales professionals, along with a few bold predictions:

• First, most of the world is using Windows today (albeit mostly XP, not Vista), and that won’t change anytime soon.  So, if you’re using Windows now, and it’s all working fine, keep doing so.  You’re in good company, and there’s no need to panic.
• However, if you are using Vista today, or if you’re considering buying a new Vista-based machine, and your hardware doesn’t have the power to take advantage of the advanced user interface capabilities, consider “downgrading” to XP - you almost certainly will find a more stable environment there, and get snappier performance.
• If you are using a Mac today, and it’s getting the job done for you, keep doing so.  There’s no compelling reason to switch to any other operating system if you are happy in your insulated, safe Apple architecture - at least, for now.
• Monitor the development of netbooks closely - they will be the vehicles that drive widespread acceptance of “cloud computing.”  Netbooks are now cheap, highly portable, quick-performing platforms that are becoming especially compelling for mobile sales professionals.
• Consider buying one of the currently available, inexpensive netbooks with an “instant on” (probably Linux-based) OS as a second computer before the end of 2008, and begin to experiment with Internet-based storage and applications.  It will likely become your favorite “road machine”, and you’ll leave your heavy duty client computer at home for more processor-intensive work.
• Microsoft has probably learned enough from the Vista experience to make Windows 7 much more scalable, lean, and user-friendly OS.  The early indications that they are incorporating touch and gesture-based user interfaces will give Windows 7 enough of a “wow factor” to convince most users to upgrade to that platform in 2010.
• Even in 2010, we think that Apple will most likely continue to hide in its comfortable closed architecture, and cater to its relatively small legion of dedicated fans.
• By 2010, an increasing number of netbook users will be familiar with Linux, but most won’t realize that is what they are using - to them, it will just be the “instant on” usability feature, and they’ll use it only to the extent that they need to get connected to the Internet.
• We think that Microsoft’s Windows 7 short-term upgrade surge will be a somewhat hollow victory.  By then, enough netbooks will be in use to make cloud-based operating environments common.  By 2014, just as Microsoft ends formal support of the venerable old XP OS, it’s likely that most computer users will be “jacking into the cloud” far more frequently than they will be using disconnected, client-based computers.
• What will the dominant cloud-based OS be in 2015 and beyond? Unfortunately, there are far too many experiments in different ‘net-based operating systems today to know for certain.  Most likely, all of the currently significant OS platforms - Windows, Mac OS, and Linux - will each evolve cloud OS capabilities, thereby preserving some semblance of today’s market shares.  In other words, the brands will be the same, but they will each operate very differently than they do today.

If you take nothing else away from this series, consider this: operating systems are going to change the way that salespeople use computers over the next few years.  Those that stay on top of this rapid evolution will find exciting new ways to get the information they need to find, sell, close and service customers - those that try to cling to the status quo will be left behind, and fairly quickly.  It is that important.  Take heed.

Tags: cloud computing, Linux, Mac OS X, Microsoft Windows, Operating System, OS

Second in a six-part series

In part one of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most dominant OS in use worldwide today.

Microsoft Windows

The first thing to recognize about Windows is that there are several versions of this OS, which evolved over time as new variants and improvements were developed by Microsoft.

XP

First introduced in 2001, and still the most commonly used version of Windows with over 70 percent of all personal computers running it today, XP has been very stable and very familiar to nearly all computer-using salespeople for years.  XP comes in two flavors itself - XP Home and XP Professional, with more robust network and security functionality in the Professional version.

Microsoft officially stopped new retail sales of XP on June 30th 2008, although it will continue to support XP through April of 2014.  Microsoft did this so it could concentrate more development effort on the latest version of Windows, which they dubbed Vista, and also on the next planned version of Windows, currently called version 7, which is expected to be released in 2010.

Even though XP is not officially available for retail sale, XP Home is still available for small systems.  The fast-growing ultra-portable market of lightweight computers, designed for browsing the Internet and simpler computing tasks, is a customer segment that Microsoft does not want to lose, and only XP Home is compact enough to fit on these smaller machines - so Microsoft makes an exception for these devices.  This is largely a defensive move to keep upstart “lighter” OS alternatives, such as Linux, from gaining a beachhead in the OS market share war.

In addition, many computer makers will sell XP to purchasers of new hardware, at the customer’s request.  They can do this by using the “downgrade right” provision of the Windows Vista OS license agreement.  Essentially, to get XP in a new computer today, you have to buy Vista, and then “downgrade” it to XP, which means you pay an additional premium for XP.  This also keeps Microsoft happy, because they can continue to count the sale as a new purchase of Vista, even if the customer never intends to ever run it.  This is, of course, a completely artificial maneuver designed solely to inflate Vista’s market share.  According to recent surveys of new computer users, almost one-third of Vista purchasers exercise the downgrade right and install good old XP instead.

Vista

So, what’s wrong with Vista?  Well, that is a matter of opinion.

Many people use Vista and think it’s just fine.  Vista takes advantage of the latest improvements in computer hardware to provide a better graphical interface, and generally faster performance.  In fact, over 180 million copies of Vista have been sold.

However, a significant number of users have reported all sorts of problems with Vista. This is a result of several factors:

• Microsoft released a bewildering array of Vista upgrade and new installation versions, confusing potential buyers as to which edition they should use
• Possibly under pressure from Intel and other component manufacturers, Microsoft approved certain hardware configurations as “Vista capable” - which was technically accurate, but not very practical - some of the lower-end configurations just didn’t have the processing power to run Vista at an acceptable level of performance
• Many third-party hardware developers were too slow to complete drivers to support Vista with their devices, which meant that some users could no longer use certain printers, disk drives, or other hardware after they upgraded to Vista
• No “wow” - the biggest “cool factor” for Vista is the Aero Glass feature - an upgraded user interface that takes advantage of advanced computer graphics - the problem is that it takes advanced computer graphics to run it, and many older machines just don’t have the power to do it - so, these users just get a flat-looking XP-like user interface - yawn.

Recognizing that the initial reaction to Vista has been mixed, at best, Microsoft has stepped up its marketing efforts to try and re-engineer public perception.  For example, Microsoft recently published a new website publicizing their “Mohave Experiment“, in which they showed unsuspecting computer users an “upcoming new release of Windows.”  The users’ reactions were generally very positive.  Only then did Microsoft reveal that the “new Windows” was instead the current version of Vista.  Although obviously manipulative, the point of this exercise was to prove that Vista only has a perception problem, not one based in fact.

Critics suggest, however, that the “Mohave Experiment” proved little.  The demonstration did not show the participants any of Vista’s problems with installation, drivers, or hardware limitations.  Naturally, Microsoft focused solely on the positive advances of Vista.  But no one doubts that Vista operates very well on an optimum configuration of high-end hardware - it is with less perfect configurations that users have had trouble.

But Microsoft is soldiering on - they recently signed comedian Jerry Seinfeld as the new spokesman for Vista, as part of a US$300 million public relations makeover. No matter how much money Microsoft plows into making Vista look good, in the end, it is the user experience which will define the operating systems’ legacy.  And that has been a mixed bag, so far.  Perhaps that is why Microsoft’s leaders have started touting Windows 7, the new version now under development, as the next “big thing”.

Windows 7

In May 2008, Microsoft’s leaders previewed some of the features of the next generation of the Windows OS, currently called version 7.  Expected in 2010, Windows 7 will include support for multi-touch screen interfaces - think iPhone but with larger computer screens.  Microsoft previously showed similar technology in its “Surface” interface experiment, which showed how a large tabletop could be turned into a useful computer-driven experience.

Video: Multi-Touch in Windows 7

Microsoft’s Windows 7 engineering team, a group reportedly with more than a thousand people dedicated to the massive development project, recently opened a blog to share reports and ideas about their progress with the new OS.

While Microsoft has provided a few glimpses of Windows 7, in truth, no one really has a clear picture yet of what the operating system will look or feel like yet.  But Microsoft is betting a lot on the next-gen version - and competitors know that if Windows 7 stumbles in the marketplace, they will have a clear opportunity to step in and seize a respectable share of computer users away from Windows’ dominance.

Windows Mobile

We would be remiss if we did not also mention Windows Mobile - a version of the OS that is designed to run on hand-held devices, such as mobile phones.

Microsoft enjoys a healthy 13% of the smartphone market worldwide, and has shipped more than 18 million licenses on a wide variety of hand-held devices.

The next version of Windows Mobile, expected in 2009, is also expected to embrace a multi-touch interface similar to its bigger Windows 7 computer OS cousin.

Next in this series: Apple’s Mac OS X

Tags: Microsoft Windows, operating systems, OS, Vista, Windows 7, Windows Mobile, XP