Fourth in a six-part series

In Part One of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most commonly-used open source alternative OS.

Linux

Originally developed in 1991 by Linus Torvalds, the Linux operating system is the poster child for open source, freely distributed software.  Used primarily to run back-office server computers, Linux is a favorite of systems administrators and programmers who appreciate its technical elegance and reliable operation, all at significantly lower cost than other commercial operating systems.

Linux’ strength is also its weakness, however.  Largely invisible to the end-user community, Linux hasn’t garnered the mindshare of the computer-buying market, compared to alternatives from Microsoft or Apple.  Since no one organization has a major stake in the commercial success of the OS, it has not been promoted aggressively to end users, as yet, so Linux just hasn’t captured the imagination of most computer systems buyers.

That is beginning to change, however.  Linux is finally making its way onto the typical computer user’s desktop, driven mostly by the rapid emergence of ultra-portable netbook computers. Generally smaller and lighter than full-function laptops, ultra-portables are designed primarily for accessing the Internet and performing lighter computing tasks.  Netbooks are more information-access appliances than standalone computers.  And like all good appliances, the ability to perform a function quickly and simply is key to its marketability.  And so, Linux is now finding a happy home embedded in netbooks.

With a Linux-based OS embedded, an ultra-portable can provide “instant on” access to an Internet browser, or to files stored on the device.  Users don’t have to wait for a full-feature OS to load, as with Windows or OS X.  Just turn the netbook on, and away you go.  Two good examples of “instant on” Linux-based applications are Splashtop, available on many Asus ultra-portables, and Dell’s “Latitude ON”, which uses a version of the Ubuntu flavor of Linux - both provide users with immediate access to common computer functions.

Tech guru and pundit John Dvorak recently wrote about the potential threat that “instant on” embedded Linux poses to established operating systems, especially Windows.  Dvorak wrote:

…The most interesting story the media is downplaying is the ASUS announcement that it will have a ROM boot chip on all its motherboards, which will boot Linux instantly on start-up. When you flick the switch the machine is instantly on. (It’s about time.) Of course, you will have to press another button for the machine to load Windows…

It’s an extremely subversive ploy for a number of reasons. First of all, it gets people used to Linux, gives them a pain-free experience, and provides quick rewards. Second, it shows users that—most of the time—this is all they need. And finally, it makes Windows look like a subsystem not much different from a program that you run under Windows. The psychological effect of this is profound, and the results could be devastating for Microsoft.

What will develop naturally from such a new architecture will be Linux replacement apps for the usual Windows apps. One at a time they will come. Windows will boot only for those laggard apps, such as Adobe Photoshop or Illustrator. The rest of the time, users will remain in Linux, which will be perceived as very snappy and responsive—something missing from Windows.

Could Linux ultimately take over the computer operating system market? Even if “instant on” embedded Linux becomes common, the open source OS still may not be able to declare victory over Windows.  For one thing, most users turning on their netbook appliance won’t know that they are running Linux, so the OS won’t get the credit it probably deserves.  Second, Microsoft isn’t going to stay still, and as we’ve already discussed earlier in this series, they are also developing the next generation of Windows, which promises to be leaner, lighter and more flexible.  What’s to stop Microsoft from developing an “instant on” ROM-based version of their OS kernel for Windows 7?

In addition, there is no “one” flavor of Linux.  In fact, there are too many versions available, which has added nothing but confusion to the general market’s understanding of what Linux is, how it looks, how it operates, and what it feels like to use it.  Most likely, this diversity will increase, further fragmenting market perception.

Linux does have one major advantage, however - it is free. And that means that computer developers can add more to their profit margins, instead of paying license fees to Microsoft.  They would love it if Windows went away, and an OS that worked reliably, and which customers were willing to buy, was free.  And for that reason alone, expect to see more computer manufacturers embedding “instant on” Linux into their systems very soon.

Next in this series: “The Cloud”

Tags: Linux, operating systems, OS

Second in a six-part series

In part one of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most dominant OS in use worldwide today.

Microsoft Windows

The first thing to recognize about Windows is that there are several versions of this OS, which evolved over time as new variants and improvements were developed by Microsoft.

XP

First introduced in 2001, and still the most commonly used version of Windows with over 70 percent of all personal computers running it today, XP has been very stable and very familiar to nearly all computer-using salespeople for years.  XP comes in two flavors itself - XP Home and XP Professional, with more robust network and security functionality in the Professional version.

Microsoft officially stopped new retail sales of XP on June 30th 2008, although it will continue to support XP through April of 2014.  Microsoft did this so it could concentrate more development effort on the latest version of Windows, which they dubbed Vista, and also on the next planned version of Windows, currently called version 7, which is expected to be released in 2010.

Even though XP is not officially available for retail sale, XP Home is still available for small systems.  The fast-growing ultra-portable market of lightweight computers, designed for browsing the Internet and simpler computing tasks, is a customer segment that Microsoft does not want to lose, and only XP Home is compact enough to fit on these smaller machines - so Microsoft makes an exception for these devices.  This is largely a defensive move to keep upstart “lighter” OS alternatives, such as Linux, from gaining a beachhead in the OS market share war.

In addition, many computer makers will sell XP to purchasers of new hardware, at the customer’s request.  They can do this by using the “downgrade right” provision of the Windows Vista OS license agreement.  Essentially, to get XP in a new computer today, you have to buy Vista, and then “downgrade” it to XP, which means you pay an additional premium for XP.  This also keeps Microsoft happy, because they can continue to count the sale as a new purchase of Vista, even if the customer never intends to ever run it.  This is, of course, a completely artificial maneuver designed solely to inflate Vista’s market share.  According to recent surveys of new computer users, almost one-third of Vista purchasers exercise the downgrade right and install good old XP instead.

Vista

So, what’s wrong with Vista?  Well, that is a matter of opinion.

Many people use Vista and think it’s just fine.  Vista takes advantage of the latest improvements in computer hardware to provide a better graphical interface, and generally faster performance.  In fact, over 180 million copies of Vista have been sold.

However, a significant number of users have reported all sorts of problems with Vista. This is a result of several factors:

• Microsoft released a bewildering array of Vista upgrade and new installation versions, confusing potential buyers as to which edition they should use
• Possibly under pressure from Intel and other component manufacturers, Microsoft approved certain hardware configurations as “Vista capable” - which was technically accurate, but not very practical - some of the lower-end configurations just didn’t have the processing power to run Vista at an acceptable level of performance
• Many third-party hardware developers were too slow to complete drivers to support Vista with their devices, which meant that some users could no longer use certain printers, disk drives, or other hardware after they upgraded to Vista
• No “wow” - the biggest “cool factor” for Vista is the Aero Glass feature - an upgraded user interface that takes advantage of advanced computer graphics - the problem is that it takes advanced computer graphics to run it, and many older machines just don’t have the power to do it - so, these users just get a flat-looking XP-like user interface - yawn.

Recognizing that the initial reaction to Vista has been mixed, at best, Microsoft has stepped up its marketing efforts to try and re-engineer public perception.  For example, Microsoft recently published a new website publicizing their “Mohave Experiment“, in which they showed unsuspecting computer users an “upcoming new release of Windows.”  The users’ reactions were generally very positive.  Only then did Microsoft reveal that the “new Windows” was instead the current version of Vista.  Although obviously manipulative, the point of this exercise was to prove that Vista only has a perception problem, not one based in fact.

Critics suggest, however, that the “Mohave Experiment” proved little.  The demonstration did not show the participants any of Vista’s problems with installation, drivers, or hardware limitations.  Naturally, Microsoft focused solely on the positive advances of Vista.  But no one doubts that Vista operates very well on an optimum configuration of high-end hardware - it is with less perfect configurations that users have had trouble.

But Microsoft is soldiering on - they recently signed comedian Jerry Seinfeld as the new spokesman for Vista, as part of a US$300 million public relations makeover. No matter how much money Microsoft plows into making Vista look good, in the end, it is the user experience which will define the operating systems’ legacy.  And that has been a mixed bag, so far.  Perhaps that is why Microsoft’s leaders have started touting Windows 7, the new version now under development, as the next “big thing”.

Windows 7

In May 2008, Microsoft’s leaders previewed some of the features of the next generation of the Windows OS, currently called version 7.  Expected in 2010, Windows 7 will include support for multi-touch screen interfaces - think iPhone but with larger computer screens.  Microsoft previously showed similar technology in its “Surface” interface experiment, which showed how a large tabletop could be turned into a useful computer-driven experience.

Video: Multi-Touch in Windows 7

Microsoft’s Windows 7 engineering team, a group reportedly with more than a thousand people dedicated to the massive development project, recently opened a blog to share reports and ideas about their progress with the new OS.

While Microsoft has provided a few glimpses of Windows 7, in truth, no one really has a clear picture yet of what the operating system will look or feel like yet.  But Microsoft is betting a lot on the next-gen version - and competitors know that if Windows 7 stumbles in the marketplace, they will have a clear opportunity to step in and seize a respectable share of computer users away from Windows’ dominance.

Windows Mobile

We would be remiss if we did not also mention Windows Mobile - a version of the OS that is designed to run on hand-held devices, such as mobile phones.

Microsoft enjoys a healthy 13% of the smartphone market worldwide, and has shipped more than 18 million licenses on a wide variety of hand-held devices.

The next version of Windows Mobile, expected in 2009, is also expected to embrace a multi-touch interface similar to its bigger Windows 7 computer OS cousin.

Next in this series: Apple’s Mac OS X

Tags: Microsoft Windows, operating systems, OS, Vista, Windows 7, Windows Mobile, XP

First of a six-part series

In order to be competitive today, virtually all sales professionals must use computers.  They need rapid access to information about their industry, customers, prospects, competitors, and their own organizations’ products and services, and the computer is the ideal device for finding, storing and retrieving this information.

Most people think of computers in terms of hardware: the central processing unit, storage, disk drives, keyboard and display, among other components.  But hardware is simply the “flesh and blood” of a computer - its “soul” is the operating system (OS).

Simply put, the OS is the first thing a computer loads when it is turned on.  It provides the rules which define how the computer recognizes all its hardware, how the components will work together, how it will run software programs, and how it will interact with the user. And so, most of the experience of using a computer is defined by the operating system.

For almost two decades, by far the most commonly used OS has been Microsoft Windows.  Today, more than 90% of all personal computing devices use some version of Windows, worldwide.

But is Microsoft’s long-held hegemony over the OS landscape slipping? Could alternative operating systems challenge Windows, and give users - including sales professionals - more choice in how they use their computers?  And most importantly, would any shifts in the OS market help or hinder salespeople as they try to do their jobs?

Over the next five days, we’ll examine the state of the principal operating systems used today, and try to get some insight about how their evolution might affect sales professionals - and what they should do to prepare.

Next in this series: Microsoft Windows - XP, Vista, version 7, and Mobile

Tags: operating systems