Second in a six-part series

In part one of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most dominant OS in use worldwide today.

Microsoft Windows

The first thing to recognize about Windows is that there are several versions of this OS, which evolved over time as new variants and improvements were developed by Microsoft.

XP

First introduced in 2001, and still the most commonly used version of Windows with over 70 percent of all personal computers running it today, XP has been very stable and very familiar to nearly all computer-using salespeople for years.  XP comes in two flavors itself - XP Home and XP Professional, with more robust network and security functionality in the Professional version.

Microsoft officially stopped new retail sales of XP on June 30th 2008, although it will continue to support XP through April of 2014.  Microsoft did this so it could concentrate more development effort on the latest version of Windows, which they dubbed Vista, and also on the next planned version of Windows, currently called version 7, which is expected to be released in 2010.

Even though XP is not officially available for retail sale, XP Home is still available for small systems.  The fast-growing ultra-portable market of lightweight computers, designed for browsing the Internet and simpler computing tasks, is a customer segment that Microsoft does not want to lose, and only XP Home is compact enough to fit on these smaller machines - so Microsoft makes an exception for these devices.  This is largely a defensive move to keep upstart “lighter” OS alternatives, such as Linux, from gaining a beachhead in the OS market share war.

In addition, many computer makers will sell XP to purchasers of new hardware, at the customer’s request.  They can do this by using the “downgrade right” provision of the Windows Vista OS license agreement.  Essentially, to get XP in a new computer today, you have to buy Vista, and then “downgrade” it to XP, which means you pay an additional premium for XP.  This also keeps Microsoft happy, because they can continue to count the sale as a new purchase of Vista, even if the customer never intends to ever run it.  This is, of course, a completely artificial maneuver designed solely to inflate Vista’s market share.  According to recent surveys of new computer users, almost one-third of Vista purchasers exercise the downgrade right and install good old XP instead.

Vista

So, what’s wrong with Vista?  Well, that is a matter of opinion.

Many people use Vista and think it’s just fine.  Vista takes advantage of the latest improvements in computer hardware to provide a better graphical interface, and generally faster performance.  In fact, over 180 million copies of Vista have been sold.

However, a significant number of users have reported all sorts of problems with Vista. This is a result of several factors:

• Microsoft released a bewildering array of Vista upgrade and new installation versions, confusing potential buyers as to which edition they should use
• Possibly under pressure from Intel and other component manufacturers, Microsoft approved certain hardware configurations as “Vista capable” - which was technically accurate, but not very practical - some of the lower-end configurations just didn’t have the processing power to run Vista at an acceptable level of performance
• Many third-party hardware developers were too slow to complete drivers to support Vista with their devices, which meant that some users could no longer use certain printers, disk drives, or other hardware after they upgraded to Vista
• No “wow” - the biggest “cool factor” for Vista is the Aero Glass feature - an upgraded user interface that takes advantage of advanced computer graphics - the problem is that it takes advanced computer graphics to run it, and many older machines just don’t have the power to do it - so, these users just get a flat-looking XP-like user interface - yawn.

Recognizing that the initial reaction to Vista has been mixed, at best, Microsoft has stepped up its marketing efforts to try and re-engineer public perception.  For example, Microsoft recently published a new website publicizing their “Mohave Experiment“, in which they showed unsuspecting computer users an “upcoming new release of Windows.”  The users’ reactions were generally very positive.  Only then did Microsoft reveal that the “new Windows” was instead the current version of Vista.  Although obviously manipulative, the point of this exercise was to prove that Vista only has a perception problem, not one based in fact.

Critics suggest, however, that the “Mohave Experiment” proved little.  The demonstration did not show the participants any of Vista’s problems with installation, drivers, or hardware limitations.  Naturally, Microsoft focused solely on the positive advances of Vista.  But no one doubts that Vista operates very well on an optimum configuration of high-end hardware - it is with less perfect configurations that users have had trouble.

But Microsoft is soldiering on - they recently signed comedian Jerry Seinfeld as the new spokesman for Vista, as part of a US$300 million public relations makeover. No matter how much money Microsoft plows into making Vista look good, in the end, it is the user experience which will define the operating systems’ legacy.  And that has been a mixed bag, so far.  Perhaps that is why Microsoft’s leaders have started touting Windows 7, the new version now under development, as the next “big thing”.

Windows 7

In May 2008, Microsoft’s leaders previewed some of the features of the next generation of the Windows OS, currently called version 7.  Expected in 2010, Windows 7 will include support for multi-touch screen interfaces - think iPhone but with larger computer screens.  Microsoft previously showed similar technology in its “Surface” interface experiment, which showed how a large tabletop could be turned into a useful computer-driven experience.

Video: Multi-Touch in Windows 7

Microsoft’s Windows 7 engineering team, a group reportedly with more than a thousand people dedicated to the massive development project, recently opened a blog to share reports and ideas about their progress with the new OS.

While Microsoft has provided a few glimpses of Windows 7, in truth, no one really has a clear picture yet of what the operating system will look or feel like yet.  But Microsoft is betting a lot on the next-gen version - and competitors know that if Windows 7 stumbles in the marketplace, they will have a clear opportunity to step in and seize a respectable share of computer users away from Windows’ dominance.

Windows Mobile

We would be remiss if we did not also mention Windows Mobile - a version of the OS that is designed to run on hand-held devices, such as mobile phones.

Microsoft enjoys a healthy 13% of the smartphone market worldwide, and has shipped more than 18 million licenses on a wide variety of hand-held devices.

The next version of Windows Mobile, expected in 2009, is also expected to embrace a multi-touch interface similar to its bigger Windows 7 computer OS cousin.

Next in this series: Apple’s Mac OS X

Tags: Microsoft Windows, operating systems, OS, Vista, Windows 7, Windows Mobile, XP

While salespeople continue to peck away at their trusty Blackberry devices, or just make calls on their conventional mobile phones of various makes and models, three giant forces quietly accelerate towards a cataclysmic confrontation. These titanic forces shall soon collide, and the cacophony and chaos that this clash creates will stun and stupefy sales pros with a bewildering array of new choices, none of which will be immediately correct. But one will eventually emerge as the victor.

The names of the three forces are: Google, Apple and Microsoft. And the great battle that is about to begin will be known as the War of the Phones. And salespeople will be caught in the crossfire.

It’s gonna be great.

All three companies have begun to unveil pieces of their respective visions of the next great technology: fully functional, hand-held, connected computing platforms. Oh, and they’ll make phone calls, too. In fact, we’ll all call them “phones” — and the three giants will, too — but don’t be fooled. Making calls will be only one useful thing that these new devices will do.

These devices will also contain enough processing power to be genuinely useful client computers, and their interfaces will be swift and intuitive enough to make hand-held document creation and spreadsheet jockeying do-able, if not outright pleasant. Further, these devices will feature fast near-broadband or better Internet connectivity speeds, enabling practical cloud computing and collaboration, all in the palm of your hand. Coupled with the absolute requirements of email, calendar, contact management, messaging and voice telephone, the next generation of mobile devices will become the primary tool in every sales professional’s stock in trade.

Google Android

If you haven’t seen any Android phones yet, don’t worry — that’s because there aren’t any. Android is a software system for mobile devices based on the open source Linux operating system. Google is promoting Android as an open platform for the next generation for mobile computing and telecommunications, and so far, they have been successful in attracting a significant number of technology companies to begin developing and supporting Android-based devices.

Android is a very interesting operating system for mobile devices. Google’s Andy Rubin, who heads up the Android development project, recently demonstrated a prototype at a San Francisco developer’s conference:

Observers of the prototype demonstrations have commented that the initial versions of Android devices offer many of the user-friendly interface functions found in the popular Apple iPhone, with speedy connectivity and computing power.

Apple iPhone

The user interface of the Apple iPhone is revolutionary. If you haven’t experienced it, you can see an overview here: iPhone Guided Tour. The intelligent multi-touch screen and gesture-based commands make the iPhone a truly unique and highly intuitive user experience. There simply isn’t anything else like it on the market today. As a result, Apple has sold nearly 10 million units since the iPhone was first introduced last year.

Microsoft Windows Mobile

Microsoft’s Windows Mobile operating system has been around since 2003, but it has been upgraded and improved steadily over the years. Recently, Microsoft demonstrated a touch screen interface for mobile devices, which included multi-touch and motion-based commands, similar to the popular iPhone interface. Industry analysts speculate that this is part of the next release of Windows Mobile, planned for the latter half of 2009. Microsoft’s leaders, Bill Gates and Steve Balmer, also recently stated that multi-touch screen interface support will be part of the future Windows 7 operating system.

Microsoft is selling a lot of Windows Mobile devices already. In fact, a Microsoft spokesperson projected a 50 percent growth in sales per year over the next two years, which translates to almost 60 million units sold between 2006 and 2009.

Who will win?

We said that we expected one of the three behemoths to emerge victorious from this clash of titans, and we think we know who it will probably be. At least, we are willing to speculate as to who it should be. And we can justify our conclusion based on one simple principle: maximum customer freedom.

With an open architecture, more developers can produce applications and add-ons for a mobile device much more cheaply and easily. As a result, in a mobile device based on an open architecture design, users should have enormous flexibility in configuring that device to their specific requirements and tastes, and at attractive prices — in fact, in many cases, enhancements and add-ons will be free.

But an open architecture can only succeed if it garners enough support from developers and manufacturers to create enough devices with enough options to interest large market segments of potential buyers. As a result, many open architecture initiatives have been relegated to niche markets, or failed outright.

Google, however, is doing everything right, so far, in establishing Android as an open architecture with a broad base of manufacturer and developer support. And they’ve built into that architecture the potential for further extensibility and enhancements, all at an individual user’s option. Further, the demonstrations of the early versions of Android phones have been very impressive — if the final released versions perform this good in real-world use, and if they are priced competitively, they will be very tantalizing indeed. For these reasons, we think Android could eventually be the mobile device platform that everyone, especially sales professionals, will want to have in their hands — when those devices begin to appear “in the second half of 2008″, according to Andy Rubin.

Before the folks at Google start popping the champaign corks, however, a lot of things have to go right. And meanwhile, their competitors are not going to be sitting idle.

First, Android is behind in the race. Apple’s new 3G iPhone will do very well, if it is released early this summer as many experts predict. The new iPhone should include improved Internet connectivity speeds, ability to receive “push email” from Microsoft Exchange servers (a “must have” for corporate acceptance), and support for third-party add-on applications. The iPhone user interface is indeed a leap forward in user friendliness — it’s intuitive nature simply makes the iPhone the most fun device to use. And for these reasons, despite fairly high anticipated introduction prices, the iPhone should quickly capture a respectable share of the market.

Apple has some challenges, however. Although Apple will soon support third-party developed applications, they do so under some heavily controlled conditions — Apple will almost certainly require its approval of all applications and require sale exclusively through it’s iTunes distribution system. To be fair, Apple is trying to protect users from unpleasant experiences with badly written software, which is good. What is less good, however, is that these restrictions could become a significant barrier to many third-party developers, and thereby reduce customer choice — which will look more obvious if Android successfully attracts many more third-party developers. Still, the iPhone should enjoy several months of virtually no comparable competition, and with the new 3G capabilities and a broad array of worldwide carriers supporting the device, the newest edition could capture a huge market share in the summer and fall of 2008.

Microsoft is so far behind that it’s hard to imagine how they might catch up with their more nimble competitors in this race. While Windows Mobile is selling a lot of devices, and there is a lot of speculation that the next version will incorporate a much richer user interface, it will be at least a year before we see any new devices on the market that take advantage of these capabilities. By then, the iPhone and Android phones will have carved out large and highly defensible shares of the next generation mobile device market.

And what of the old reliable Blackberry devices, from RIM? Will they be able to hold off the onslaught of these new platforms? Are salespeople so addicted to their “Crackberries” that they will be unwilling to switch? Certainly it seems that RIM is counting on this, and hoping that all interlopers will stumble and fall. Meanwhile, RIM’s next generation of Blackberry devices appear to be solid, incremental improvements over the previous versions — but while they are faster and have more capacity, they really don’t offer anything radically new in their interface or extensibility — at least, not yet.

Perhaps some other player will emerge in the next generation mobile device market that we haven’t yet identified — perhaps Nokia, who still sells more mobile phones than anyone, with a revamped Symbian-based operating system. Or the once venerable Palm – although that seems very unlikely, given their recent track record of development mis-steps.

We think it likely that one of the three giants now entering the fray will eventually dominate the next generation of advanced mobile devices, although we expect the lead to change at least twice, and perhaps three times, over the next two years.

It will be fun to watch.

Tags: Android, Blackberry, iPhone, mobile devices, mobile phone, Nokia, Palm, sales tool, War of the Phones, Windows 7, Windows Mobile