Fourth in a six-part series

In Part One of this series, we defined what an operating system (OS) is, and speculated that changes in the most significant OS platforms could affect the way that salespeople do their jobs over the next few years. In this part, we focus on the most commonly-used open source alternative OS.

Linux

Originally developed in 1991 by Linus Torvalds, the Linux operating system is the poster child for open source, freely distributed software.  Used primarily to run back-office server computers, Linux is a favorite of systems administrators and programmers who appreciate its technical elegance and reliable operation, all at significantly lower cost than other commercial operating systems.

Linux’ strength is also its weakness, however.  Largely invisible to the end-user community, Linux hasn’t garnered the mindshare of the computer-buying market, compared to alternatives from Microsoft or Apple.  Since no one organization has a major stake in the commercial success of the OS, it has not been promoted aggressively to end users, as yet, so Linux just hasn’t captured the imagination of most computer systems buyers.

That is beginning to change, however.  Linux is finally making its way onto the typical computer user’s desktop, driven mostly by the rapid emergence of ultra-portable netbook computers. Generally smaller and lighter than full-function laptops, ultra-portables are designed primarily for accessing the Internet and performing lighter computing tasks.  Netbooks are more information-access appliances than standalone computers.  And like all good appliances, the ability to perform a function quickly and simply is key to its marketability.  And so, Linux is now finding a happy home embedded in netbooks.

With a Linux-based OS embedded, an ultra-portable can provide “instant on” access to an Internet browser, or to files stored on the device.  Users don’t have to wait for a full-feature OS to load, as with Windows or OS X.  Just turn the netbook on, and away you go.  Two good examples of “instant on” Linux-based applications are Splashtop, available on many Asus ultra-portables, and Dell’s “Latitude ON”, which uses a version of the Ubuntu flavor of Linux - both provide users with immediate access to common computer functions.

Tech guru and pundit John Dvorak recently wrote about the potential threat that “instant on” embedded Linux poses to established operating systems, especially Windows.  Dvorak wrote:

…The most interesting story the media is downplaying is the ASUS announcement that it will have a ROM boot chip on all its motherboards, which will boot Linux instantly on start-up. When you flick the switch the machine is instantly on. (It’s about time.) Of course, you will have to press another button for the machine to load Windows…

It’s an extremely subversive ploy for a number of reasons. First of all, it gets people used to Linux, gives them a pain-free experience, and provides quick rewards. Second, it shows users that—most of the time—this is all they need. And finally, it makes Windows look like a subsystem not much different from a program that you run under Windows. The psychological effect of this is profound, and the results could be devastating for Microsoft.

What will develop naturally from such a new architecture will be Linux replacement apps for the usual Windows apps. One at a time they will come. Windows will boot only for those laggard apps, such as Adobe Photoshop or Illustrator. The rest of the time, users will remain in Linux, which will be perceived as very snappy and responsive—something missing from Windows.

Could Linux ultimately take over the computer operating system market? Even if “instant on” embedded Linux becomes common, the open source OS still may not be able to declare victory over Windows.  For one thing, most users turning on their netbook appliance won’t know that they are running Linux, so the OS won’t get the credit it probably deserves.  Second, Microsoft isn’t going to stay still, and as we’ve already discussed earlier in this series, they are also developing the next generation of Windows, which promises to be leaner, lighter and more flexible.  What’s to stop Microsoft from developing an “instant on” ROM-based version of their OS kernel for Windows 7?

In addition, there is no “one” flavor of Linux.  In fact, there are too many versions available, which has added nothing but confusion to the general market’s understanding of what Linux is, how it looks, how it operates, and what it feels like to use it.  Most likely, this diversity will increase, further fragmenting market perception.

Linux does have one major advantage, however - it is free. And that means that computer developers can add more to their profit margins, instead of paying license fees to Microsoft.  They would love it if Windows went away, and an OS that worked reliably, and which customers were willing to buy, was free.  And for that reason alone, expect to see more computer manufacturers embedding “instant on” Linux into their systems very soon.

Next in this series: “The Cloud”

Tags: Linux, operating systems, OS

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